Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If QTWO hits $48 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$251 (6.4%) on $-251 credit (max loss $3,949), vs +$213 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $4,587. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if QTWO is at $48. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| QTWO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$431 | -$380 | -$322 | -$279 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$292 | -$232 | -$154 | -$50 |
| $41 (-10%) | -$175 | -$108 | -$20 | +$179 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$78 | -$9 | +$81 | +$251 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$29 | +$38 | +$125 | +$251 |
| $46 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$66 | +$149 | +$251 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$27 | +$91 | +$170 | +$251 |
| $48 (+5%) โ target | +$58 | +$119 | +$191 | +$251 |
| $50 (+10%) | +$110 | +$164 | +$220 | +$251 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$147 | +$193 | +$235 | +$251 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$175 | +$213 | +$243 | +$251 |