Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RBRK hits $46 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$348 (9.5%) on $-348 credit (max loss $3,652), vs +$219 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $4,381. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RBRK is at $46. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RBRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $35 (-20%) | -$393 | -$323 | -$237 | -$147 |
| $37 (-15%) | -$272 | -$193 | -$91 | +$72 |
| $39 (-10%) | -$167 | -$83 | +$29 | +$291 |
| $42 (-5%) | -$77 | +$9 | +$123 | +$348 |
| $43 (-2%) | -$30 | +$56 | +$168 | +$348 |
| $44 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$85 | +$194 | +$348 |
| $45 (+2%) | +$27 | +$111 | +$216 | +$348 |
| $46 (+5%) โ target | +$64 | +$145 | +$245 | +$348 |
| $48 (+10%) | +$117 | +$193 | +$281 | +$348 |
| $50 (+15%) | +$161 | +$231 | +$305 | +$348 |
| $53 (+20%) | +$197 | +$260 | +$321 | +$348 |