Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If REGN hits $790 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$2,618 (3.9%) on $-2,618 credit (max loss $66,382), vs +$4,113 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $74,887. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if REGN is at $790. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| REGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $599 (-20%) | -$7,155 | -$6,805 | -$6,488 | -$6,472 |
| $637 (-15%) | -$4,520 | -$3,961 | -$3,293 | -$2,728 |
| $674 (-10%) | -$2,379 | -$1,687 | -$768 | +$1,016 |
| $711 (-5%) | -$737 | -$17 | +$932 | +$2,618 |
| $734 (-2%) | +$26 | +$717 | +$1,584 | +$2,618 |
| $749 (0%) โ spot | +$454 | +$1,108 | +$1,892 | +$2,618 |
| $764 (+2%) | +$821 | +$1,431 | +$2,121 | +$2,618 |
| $790 (+5%) โ target | +$1,338 | +$1,856 | +$2,374 | +$2,618 |
| $824 (+10%) | +$1,812 | +$2,206 | +$2,530 | +$2,618 |
| $861 (+15%) | +$2,150 | +$2,420 | +$2,593 | +$2,618 |
| $899 (+20%) | +$2,354 | +$2,527 | +$2,612 | +$2,618 |