Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 79.9% โ LOW
(-31.0% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.45 ยท ฮ 0.59
SHORT CALL ยท $18 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.97 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $19 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$102 (212.7%) on $48 risked, vs +$190 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 18.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $19 by Jun 19
+$102
+212.7% on $48 risked
Max Profit
+$102
If the stock โฅ $18 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$48
Net debit
Break-even
$16.98
+2.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.63 / 0.02 / -0.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$20 | -$25 | -$34 | -$48 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$13 | -$17 | -$26 | -$48 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$5 | -$8 | -$15 | -$48 |
| $16 (-5%) | +$3 | +$2 | -$3 | -$48 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$8 | +$8 | +$5 | -$48 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$11 | +$11 | +$11 | -$38 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$14 | +$15 | +$16 | -$5 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$19 | +$21 | +$24 | +$45 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$27 | +$31 | +$38 | +$102 |
| $19 (+11%) โ target | +$29 | +$33 | +$41 | +$102 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$34 | +$40 | +$50 | +$102 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$41 | +$48 | +$60 | +$102 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.