Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 82.2% โ LOW
(-29.0% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $15 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.21 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.7 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $15 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$48 (93.8%) on $52 risked, vs $-210 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 7.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $15 by Jun 19
+$48
+93.8% on $52 risked
Max Profit
+$48
If the stock โค $16 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$52
Net debit
Break-even
$15.98
-3.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.67 / -0.07 / 0.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$23 | +$26 | +$32 | +$49 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$18 | +$20 | +$24 | +$49 |
| $15 (-13%) โ target | +$15 | +$16 | +$20 | +$49 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$12 | +$13 | +$15 | +$49 |
| $16 (-5%) | +$6 | +$6 | +$5 | +$22 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$3 | +$1 | -$1 | -$28 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$1 | -$5 | -$51 |
| $17 (+2%) | -$2 | -$4 | -$8 | -$51 |
| $17 (+5%) | -$5 | -$8 | -$14 | -$51 |
| $18 (+10%) | -$10 | -$14 | -$22 | -$51 |
| $19 (+15%) | -$15 | -$20 | -$28 | -$51 |
| $20 (+20%) | -$19 | -$24 | -$34 | -$51 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.