Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $18 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$170 (12.3%) on $-170 credit (max loss $1,380), vs +$90 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$154 | -$124 | -$88 | -$52 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$107 | -$74 | -$32 | +$31 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$67 | -$31 | +$16 | +$114 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$31 | +$6 | +$55 | +$170 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$12 | +$26 | +$75 | +$170 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$38 | +$86 | +$170 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$11 | +$49 | +$97 | +$170 |
| $18 (+5%) โ target | +$29 | +$66 | +$112 | +$170 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$50 | +$85 | +$128 | +$170 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$69 | +$103 | +$141 | +$170 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$86 | +$117 | +$150 | +$170 |