Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 81.2% โ LOW
(-29.9% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $18 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $16.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $18 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.97 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $18 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$337 (23.0%) on $1,463 risked, vs +$140 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $18 by Jun 19
+$337
+23.0% on $1,463 risked
Max Profit
+$337
If the stock โฅ $18 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,463
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$14.63
-11.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
48.99 / 1.83 / -2.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$197 | -$171 | -$146 | -$135 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$138 | -$106 | -$72 | -$52 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$83 | -$47 | -$5 | +$31 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$34 | +$7 | +$57 | +$114 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$6 | +$37 | +$90 | +$164 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$11 | +$55 | +$111 | +$197 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$28 | +$73 | +$130 | +$230 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$51 | +$98 | +$157 | +$280 |
| $18 (+8%) โ target | +$76 | +$124 | +$185 | +$337 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$87 | +$135 | +$196 | +$337 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$118 | +$167 | +$228 | +$337 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$146 | +$194 | +$254 | +$337 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.