Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 82.2% โ LOW
(-29.0% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $16 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.62 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.88 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $16 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$98 (132.3%) on $74 risked, vs $-60 (-3.6%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 36.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $16. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $16 by Jun 19
+$98
+132.3% on $74 risked
Max Profit
+$97
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$49
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$18.64
+12.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
92%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-3.59 / 0.31 / 0.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$6 | -$1 | +$6 | +$3 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$5 | +$1 | +$12 | +$23 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$5 | +$2 | +$15 | +$51 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$5 | +$2 | +$16 | +$87 |
| $16 (-4%) โ target | -$6 | +$2 | +$16 | +$98 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$6 | +$1 | +$15 | +$85 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | -$7 | +$1 | +$14 | +$70 |
| $17 (+2%) | -$7 | -$0 | +$13 | +$56 |
| $17 (+5%) | -$9 | -$2 | +$10 | +$37 |
| $18 (+10%) | -$11 | -$5 | +$4 | +$10 |
| $19 (+15%) | -$14 | -$10 | -$3 | -$11 |
| $20 (+20%) | -$17 | -$14 | -$11 | -$27 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.