Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 79.9% โ LOW
(-31.0% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $15 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.21 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $15 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-21 (-9.7%) on $221 risked, vs $-210 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $15 by Jun 19
$-21
-9.7% on $221 risked
Max Profit
+$1,429
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$221
Premium paid
Break-even
$14.29
-13.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.36 / -1.61 / 2.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$177 | +$151 | +$121 | +$101 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$125 | +$94 | +$56 | +$18 |
| $15 (-13%) โ target | +$103 | +$70 | +$28 | -$21 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$79 | +$44 | -$1 | -$65 |
| $16 (-5%) | +$37 | -$1 | -$50 | -$148 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$14 | -$24 | -$76 | -$198 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$39 | -$91 | -$221 |
| $17 (+2%) | -$13 | -$53 | -$105 | -$221 |
| $17 (+5%) | -$32 | -$72 | -$124 | -$221 |
| $18 (+10%) | -$60 | -$99 | -$150 | -$221 |
| $19 (+15%) | -$84 | -$122 | -$169 | -$221 |
| $20 (+20%) | -$105 | -$141 | -$184 | -$221 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.