Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 81.2% โ LOW
(-29.9% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $16.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.88 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $19 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2 (0.1%) on $1,848 risked, vs +$190 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $1,660.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $19 by Jun 19
+$2
+0.1% on $1,848 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$248
Put floors you at $16
Break-even
$18.48
+11.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.62 / -1.62 / 2.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$160 | -$188 | -$221 | -$248 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$126 | -$158 | -$199 | -$248 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$87 | -$122 | -$169 | -$248 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$42 | -$80 | -$130 | -$248 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$13 | -$52 | -$102 | -$221 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | -$32 | -$83 | -$188 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$28 | -$11 | -$62 | -$155 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$60 | +$22 | -$28 | -$105 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$118 | +$80 | +$33 | -$22 |
| $19 (+11%) โ target | +$135 | +$98 | +$52 | +$2 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$179 | +$143 | +$100 | +$61 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$243 | +$209 | +$171 | +$144 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.