Target Price Playground
RIOT
$16.60
๐ข
RIOT IV: 82.2% โ LOW
(-29.0% vs 30d avg of 115.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.45 ยท ฮ 0.59
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.21 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RIOT hits $19 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-216 (-46.4%) on $466 risked, vs +$240 (14.5%) for 100 shares on $1,660. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RIOT is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if RIOT hits $19 by Jun 19
$-216
-46.4% on $466 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$466
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$21.16
+27.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.28 / -3.42 / 5.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RIOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$22 | -$36 | -$100 | -$144 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$1 | -$66 | -$146 | -$227 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$9 | -$84 | -$178 | -$310 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$9 | -$89 | -$193 | -$393 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$5 | -$87 | -$194 | -$443 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$83 | -$191 | -$456 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$7 | -$77 | -$186 | -$423 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$19 | -$65 | -$174 | -$373 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$46 | -$37 | -$142 | -$290 |
| $19 (+14%) โ target | +$77 | -$5 | -$104 | -$216 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$122 | +$44 | -$46 | -$124 |
Uses RIOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.