Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RMBS hits $115 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$817 (8.9%) on $-817 credit (max loss $9,183), vs +$456 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $11,044. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RMBS is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RMBS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88 (-20%) | -$970 | -$797 | -$583 | -$348 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$669 | -$474 | -$221 | +$204 |
| $99 (-10%) | -$408 | -$201 | +$73 | +$757 |
| $105 (-5%) | -$187 | +$24 | +$300 | +$817 |
| $108 (-2%) | -$71 | +$138 | +$408 | +$817 |
| $110 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$207 | +$469 | +$817 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$65 | +$269 | +$522 | +$817 |
| $115 (+4%) โ target | +$130 | +$329 | +$571 | +$817 |
| $121 (+10%) | +$284 | +$467 | +$672 | +$817 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$389 | +$555 | +$727 | +$817 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$475 | +$623 | +$762 | +$817 |