Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RNG hits $35 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$241 (8.4%) on $-241 credit (max loss $2,859), vs +$151 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $3,349. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RNG is at $35. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RNG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27 (-20%) | -$318 | -$274 | -$222 | -$180 |
| $28 (-15%) | -$218 | -$167 | -$101 | -$12 |
| $30 (-10%) | -$133 | -$76 | -$2 | +$155 |
| $32 (-5%) | -$60 | -$1 | +$76 | +$241 |
| $33 (-2%) | -$23 | +$36 | +$112 | +$241 |
| $33 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$58 | +$133 | +$241 |
| $34 (+2%) | +$22 | +$79 | +$151 | +$241 |
| $35 (+5%) โ target | +$46 | +$101 | +$169 | +$241 |
| $37 (+10%) | +$91 | +$142 | +$199 | +$241 |
| $39 (+15%) | +$124 | +$169 | +$216 | +$241 |
| $40 (+20%) | +$150 | +$190 | +$227 | +$241 |