Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If RTX hits $210 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$450 (2.5%) on $-450 credit (max loss $18,050), vs +$844 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $20,156. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if RTX is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| RTX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $161 (-20%) | -$1,984 | -$1,933 | -$1,898 | -$1,925 |
| $171 (-15%) | -$1,235 | -$1,125 | -$998 | -$917 |
| $181 (-10%) | -$642 | -$494 | -$296 | +$90 |
| $191 (-5%) | -$212 | -$59 | +$141 | +$450 |
| $198 (-2%) | -$25 | +$116 | +$287 | +$450 |
| $202 (0%) โ spot | +$74 | +$203 | +$348 | +$450 |
| $206 (+2%) | +$156 | +$271 | +$389 | +$450 |
| $210 (+4%) โ target | +$227 | +$326 | +$416 | +$450 |
| $222 (+10%) | +$349 | +$407 | +$444 | +$450 |
| $232 (+15%) | +$402 | +$434 | +$449 | +$450 |
| $242 (+20%) | +$428 | +$445 | +$450 | +$450 |