Target Price Playground
SBUX
$96.60
๐ข
SBUX IV: 35.9% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 52.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $85 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $97 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.22 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $89 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.06 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $85 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$483 (152.6%) on $317 risked, vs $-1,160 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $9,660. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $85. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $85 by Jun 19
+$483
+152.6% on $317 risked
Max Profit
+$483
If the stock โค $89 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$317
Net debit
Break-even
$93.83
-2.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.14 / -0.58 / 3.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 (-20%) | +$401 | +$434 | +$469 | +$484 |
| $82 (-15%) | +$327 | +$365 | +$423 | +$484 |
| $85 (-12%) โ target | +$270 | +$303 | +$364 | +$484 |
| $87 (-10%) | +$227 | +$255 | +$309 | +$484 |
| $92 (-5%) | +$113 | +$120 | +$133 | +$207 |
| $95 (-2%) | +$45 | +$36 | +$19 | -$83 |
| $97 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$16 | -$52 | -$276 |
| $99 (+2%) | -$41 | -$65 | -$114 | -$316 |
| $101 (+5%) | -$97 | -$130 | -$190 | -$316 |
| $106 (+10%) | -$174 | -$211 | -$267 | -$316 |
| $111 (+15%) | -$229 | -$262 | -$300 | -$316 |
| $116 (+20%) | -$266 | -$291 | -$312 | -$316 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.