Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
SBUX
$96.60
๐ŸŸข
SBUX IV: 35.9% โ€” LOW (-31.9% vs 30d avg of 52.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $100 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $89 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.06 ยท ฮ” -0.24
P&L at Expiry Now $97 Target $100 $68 $97 $126
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If SBUX hits $100 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$206 (2.4%) on $-206 credit (max loss $8,694), vs +$340 (3.5%) for 100 shares on $9,660. Options give 0.7ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if SBUX hits $100 by Jun 19
+$206
+2.4% on $8,694 max loss
Max Profit
+$206
If the stock โ‰ฅ $89 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$8,694
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$86.94
-10.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
23.89 / 2.84 / -12.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

SBUX Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$77 (-20%) -$1,001 -$973 -$954 -$966
$82 (-15%) -$642 -$587 -$524 -$483
$87 (-10%) -$356 -$282 -$183 -$0
$92 (-5%) -$144 -$67 +$35 +$206
$95 (-2%) -$50 +$22 +$112 +$206
$97 (0%) โ† spot +$0 +$68 +$145 +$206
$99 (+2%) +$42 +$103 +$168 +$206
$100 (+4%) โ† target +$69 +$125 +$180 +$206
$101 (+5%) +$92 +$142 +$188 +$206
$106 (+10%) +$146 +$179 +$202 +$206
$111 (+15%) +$176 +$195 +$205 +$206
$116 (+20%) +$192 +$202 +$206 +$206
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.