Target Price Playground
SBUX
$96.60
๐ข
SBUX IV: 35.9% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 52.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $96.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.26 ยท ฮ 0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $105 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,066 (11.3%) on $9,434 risked, vs +$840 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $9,660. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $105 by Jun 19
+$1,066
+11.3% on $9,434 risked
Max Profit
+$1,066
If the stock โฅ $105 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$9,434
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$94.34
-2.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.19 / 3.66 / -15.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 (-20%) | -$1,714 | -$1,708 | -$1,706 | -$1,706 |
| $82 (-15%) | -$1,248 | -$1,230 | -$1,223 | -$1,223 |
| $87 (-10%) | -$804 | -$767 | -$743 | -$740 |
| $92 (-5%) | -$396 | -$332 | -$276 | -$257 |
| $95 (-2%) | -$175 | -$94 | -$11 | +$33 |
| $97 (0%) โ spot | -$40 | +$53 | +$153 | +$226 |
| $99 (+2%) | +$86 | +$188 | +$306 | +$419 |
| $101 (+5%) | +$256 | +$369 | +$508 | +$709 |
| $105 (+9%) โ target | +$434 | +$554 | +$705 | +$1,066 |
| $106 (+10%) | +$488 | +$609 | +$761 | +$1,066 |
| $111 (+15%) | +$660 | +$775 | +$912 | +$1,066 |
| $116 (+20%) | +$780 | +$881 | +$988 | +$1,066 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.