Target Price Playground
SBUX
$96.60
๐ข
SBUX IV: 35.9% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 52.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $96.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $92 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.03 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $105 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$537 (5.4%) on $9,963 risked, vs +$840 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $9,660. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $105 by Jun 19
+$537
+5.4% on $9,963 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$763
Put floors you at $92
Break-even
$99.63
+3.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.26 / -3.21 / 14.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 (-20%) | -$769 | -$783 | -$784 | -$763 |
| $82 (-15%) | -$678 | -$720 | -$759 | -$763 |
| $87 (-10%) | -$524 | -$591 | -$674 | -$763 |
| $92 (-5%) | -$297 | -$377 | -$485 | -$763 |
| $95 (-2%) | -$127 | -$207 | -$313 | -$496 |
| $97 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$78 | -$177 | -$303 |
| $99 (+2%) | +$136 | +$63 | -$26 | -$110 |
| $101 (+5%) | +$358 | +$293 | +$223 | +$180 |
| $105 (+9%) โ target | +$653 | +$602 | +$554 | +$537 |
| $106 (+10%) | +$762 | +$715 | +$675 | +$663 |
| $111 (+15%) | +$1,199 | +$1,168 | +$1,149 | +$1,146 |
| $116 (+20%) | +$1,656 | +$1,638 | +$1,630 | +$1,629 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.