Target Price Playground
SBUX
$96.60
๐ข
SBUX IV: 35.9% โ LOW
(-31.9% vs 30d avg of 52.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $97 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.62 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $97 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.22 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $110 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$215 (19.8%) on $1,085 risked, vs +$1,340 (13.9%) for 100 shares on $9,660. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $110 by Jun 19
+$215
+19.8% on $1,085 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,085
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$86.15
-10.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.95 / -8.04 / 32.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 (-20%) | +$871 | +$855 | +$862 | +$888 |
| $82 (-15%) | +$489 | +$428 | +$391 | +$405 |
| $87 (-10%) | +$200 | +$81 | -$35 | -$78 |
| $92 (-5%) | +$31 | -$137 | -$341 | -$561 |
| $95 (-2%) | -$4 | -$191 | -$432 | -$851 |
| $97 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$194 | -$447 | -$1,044 |
| $99 (+2%) | +$27 | -$170 | -$424 | -$931 |
| $101 (+5%) | +$105 | -$87 | -$326 | -$641 |
| $106 (+10%) | +$325 | +$159 | -$24 | -$158 |
| $110 (+14%) โ target | +$561 | +$422 | +$287 | +$216 |
| $111 (+15%) | +$638 | +$507 | +$386 | +$325 |
| $116 (+20%) | +$1,017 | +$920 | +$844 | +$808 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.