Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $97 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.75 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $100 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.4 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $97 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$565 (129.9%) on $435 risked, vs $-1,379 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 10.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $97. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $97 by Jun 19
+$565
+129.9% on $435 risked
Max Profit
+$565
If the stock โค $100 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$435
Net debit
Break-even
$105.65
-4.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.16 / -0.42 / 1.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | +$326 | +$362 | +$431 | +$565 |
| $94 (-15%) | +$252 | +$278 | +$333 | +$565 |
| $97 (-12%) โ target | +$213 | +$231 | +$273 | +$565 |
| $100 (-10%) | +$175 | +$185 | +$211 | +$565 |
| $105 (-5%) | +$98 | +$91 | +$81 | +$40 |
| $109 (-2%) | +$52 | +$35 | +$4 | -$292 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | +$23 | -$1 | -$46 | -$435 |
| $113 (+2%) | -$6 | -$35 | -$92 | -$435 |
| $116 (+5%) | -$48 | -$85 | -$156 | -$435 |
| $122 (+10%) | -$111 | -$158 | -$245 | -$435 |
| $127 (+15%) | -$168 | -$221 | -$311 | -$435 |
| $133 (+20%) | -$217 | -$272 | -$357 | -$435 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.