Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $115 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$840 (9.2%) on $-840 credit (max loss $9,160), vs +$421 (3.8%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | -$777 | -$635 | -$463 | -$297 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$463 | -$299 | -$85 | +$257 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$197 | -$20 | +$214 | +$811 |
| $105 (-5%) | +$24 | +$203 | +$436 | +$840 |
| $109 (-2%) | +$137 | +$313 | +$536 | +$840 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | +$205 | +$377 | +$591 | +$840 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$267 | +$435 | +$637 | +$840 |
| $115 (+4%) โ target | +$318 | +$481 | +$673 | +$840 |
| $116 (+5%) | +$350 | +$509 | +$693 | +$840 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$465 | +$607 | +$757 | +$840 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$555 | +$679 | +$794 | +$840 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$625 | +$729 | +$816 | +$840 |