Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $110.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.65 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $120 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,786 (17.5%) on $10,214 risked, vs +$921 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $120 by Jun 19
+$1,786
+17.5% on $10,214 risked
Max Profit
+$1,786
If the stock โฅ $120 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$10,214
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$102.14
-7.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.69 / 9.44 / -19.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | -$1,541 | -$1,443 | -$1,369 | -$1,351 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$1,097 | -$965 | -$844 | -$797 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$689 | -$523 | -$348 | -$243 |
| $105 (-5%) | -$322 | -$125 | +$104 | +$311 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$121 | +$92 | +$349 | +$643 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | +$5 | +$226 | +$501 | +$865 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$124 | +$354 | +$642 | +$1,087 |
| $116 (+5%) | +$291 | +$529 | +$833 | +$1,419 |
| $120 (+8%) โ target | +$458 | +$703 | +$1,017 | +$1,786 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$537 | +$784 | +$1,099 | +$1,786 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$748 | +$994 | +$1,304 | +$1,786 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$925 | +$1,164 | +$1,453 | +$1,786 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.