Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $110 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.45 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.45 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $105 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$624 (156.0%) on $400 risked, vs $-579 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 30.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $105 by Jun 19
+$624
+156.0% on $400 risked
Max Profit
+$623
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$336
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$120.27
+8.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.13 / 1.66 / 3.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | +$119 | +$147 | +$181 | +$153 |
| $94 (-15%) | +$112 | +$148 | +$205 | +$248 |
| $100 (-10%) | +$98 | +$137 | +$208 | +$396 |
| $105 (-5%) โ target | +$77 | +$116 | +$187 | +$597 |
| $109 (-2%) | +$60 | +$95 | +$161 | +$409 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | +$48 | +$80 | +$140 | +$306 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$35 | +$64 | +$117 | +$213 |
| $116 (+5%) | +$15 | +$39 | +$78 | +$92 |
| $122 (+10%) | -$21 | -$8 | +$6 | -$67 |
| $127 (+15%) | -$58 | -$57 | -$66 | -$181 |
| $133 (+20%) | -$96 | -$105 | -$134 | -$259 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.