Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.2 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $125 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$180 (13.6%) on $1,320 risked, vs +$1,421 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $125 by Jun 19
+$180
+13.6% on $1,320 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,320
Premium paid
Break-even
$123.20
+11.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.75 / -9.97 / 18.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | -$989 | -$1,124 | -$1,257 | -$1,320 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$822 | -$991 | -$1,179 | -$1,320 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$612 | -$808 | -$1,045 | -$1,320 |
| $105 (-5%) | -$356 | -$571 | -$844 | -$1,320 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$182 | -$405 | -$690 | -$1,320 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | -$58 | -$283 | -$572 | -$1,241 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$73 | -$153 | -$443 | -$1,019 |
| $116 (+5%) | +$281 | +$55 | -$230 | -$687 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$656 | +$437 | +$172 | -$133 |
| $125 (+13%) โ target | +$882 | +$670 | +$421 | +$180 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$1,063 | +$857 | +$622 | +$421 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$1,498 | +$1,309 | +$1,108 | +$975 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.