Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $97 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.75 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $97 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$25 (2.0%) on $1,275 risked, vs $-1,379 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $97. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $97 by Jun 19
+$25
+2.0% on $1,275 risked
Max Profit
+$9,725
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,275
Premium paid
Break-even
$97.25
-12.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.59 / -8.91 / 18.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | +$1,103 | +$997 | +$894 | +$862 |
| $94 (-15%) | +$715 | +$576 | +$418 | +$308 |
| $97 (-12%) โ target | +$534 | +$380 | +$196 | +$25 |
| $100 (-10%) | +$372 | +$206 | -$2 | -$246 |
| $105 (-5%) | +$73 | -$112 | -$356 | -$800 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$85 | -$278 | -$533 | -$1,132 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | -$182 | -$378 | -$637 | -$1,275 |
| $113 (+2%) | -$273 | -$470 | -$730 | -$1,275 |
| $116 (+5%) | -$398 | -$594 | -$849 | -$1,275 |
| $122 (+10%) | -$576 | -$766 | -$1,001 | -$1,275 |
| $127 (+15%) | -$723 | -$900 | -$1,105 | -$1,275 |
| $133 (+20%) | -$842 | -$1,002 | -$1,173 | -$1,275 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.