Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $110.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $125 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$1,421 (12.8%) on $11,079 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $125 by Jun 19
+$1,421
+12.8% on $11,079 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$11,079
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$110.79
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | -$2,216 | -$2,216 | -$2,216 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$1,662 | -$1,662 | -$1,662 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$1,108 | -$1,108 | -$1,108 |
| $105 (-5%) | -$554 | -$554 | -$554 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$222 | -$222 | -$222 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $113 (+2%) | +$222 | +$222 | +$222 |
| $116 (+5%) | +$554 | +$554 | +$554 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$1,108 | +$1,108 | +$1,108 |
| $125 (+13%) โ target | +$1,421 | +$1,421 | +$1,421 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$1,662 | +$1,662 | +$1,662 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$2,216 | +$2,216 | +$2,216 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.