Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $110.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.45 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $120 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-124 (-1.0%) on $12,124 risked, vs +$921 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $120 by Jun 19
$-124
-1.0% on $12,124 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,624
Put floors you at $105
Break-even
$121.24
+9.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.61 / -8.69 / 18.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | -$1,277 | -$1,402 | -$1,541 | -$1,624 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$1,076 | -$1,230 | -$1,420 | -$1,624 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$828 | -$1,003 | -$1,231 | -$1,624 |
| $105 (-5%) | -$534 | -$720 | -$967 | -$1,599 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$338 | -$526 | -$773 | -$1,267 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | -$199 | -$386 | -$630 | -$1,045 |
| $113 (+2%) | -$53 | -$239 | -$477 | -$823 |
| $116 (+5%) | +$176 | -$5 | -$230 | -$491 |
| $120 (+8%) โ target | +$443 | +$270 | +$64 | -$124 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$584 | +$416 | +$221 | +$63 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$1,021 | +$870 | +$710 | +$617 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$1,482 | +$1,350 | +$1,223 | +$1,171 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.