Target Price Playground
SHOP
$110.79
๐ข
SHOP IV: 59.2% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 78.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.2 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.75 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SHOP hits $125 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,095 (-42.2%) on $2,595 risked, vs +$1,421 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $11,079. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SHOP is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SHOP hits $125 by Jun 19
$-1,095
-42.2% on $2,595 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,595
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$135.95
+22.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.16 / -18.88 / 37.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SHOP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 (-20%) | +$114 | -$127 | -$363 | -$458 |
| $94 (-15%) | -$107 | -$414 | -$761 | -$1,012 |
| $100 (-10%) | -$240 | -$602 | -$1,047 | -$1,566 |
| $105 (-5%) | -$283 | -$684 | -$1,200 | -$2,120 |
| $109 (-2%) | -$267 | -$682 | -$1,222 | -$2,452 |
| $111 (0%) โ spot | -$240 | -$661 | -$1,208 | -$2,516 |
| $113 (+2%) | -$200 | -$623 | -$1,172 | -$2,294 |
| $116 (+5%) | -$117 | -$539 | -$1,079 | -$1,962 |
| $122 (+10%) | +$80 | -$329 | -$829 | -$1,408 |
| $125 (+13%) โ target | +$219 | -$176 | -$644 | -$1,095 |
| $127 (+15%) | +$340 | -$43 | -$483 | -$854 |
| $133 (+20%) | +$656 | +$307 | -$65 | -$300 |
Uses SHOP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.