Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SNDK hits $890 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$10,700 (15.9%) on $-10,700 credit (max loss $67,300), vs +$3,823 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $85,177. Options give 3.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SNDK is at $890. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SNDK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $681 (-20%) | -$6,058 | -$4,264 | -$2,001 | +$842 |
| $724 (-15%) | -$3,864 | -$1,905 | +$651 | +$5,100 |
| $767 (-10%) | -$1,917 | +$152 | +$2,889 | +$9,359 |
| $809 (-5%) | -$202 | +$1,925 | +$4,728 | +$10,700 |
| $835 (-2%) | +$725 | +$2,862 | +$5,654 | +$10,700 |
| $852 (0%) โ spot | +$1,302 | +$3,438 | +$6,204 | +$10,700 |
| $869 (+2%) | +$1,849 | +$3,976 | +$6,703 | +$10,700 |
| $890 (+4%) โ target | +$2,488 | +$4,596 | +$7,257 | +$10,700 |
| $937 (+10%) | +$3,754 | +$5,792 | +$8,253 | +$10,700 |
| $980 (+15%) | +$4,741 | +$6,687 | +$8,927 | +$10,700 |
| $1022 (+20%) | +$5,593 | +$7,429 | +$9,428 | +$10,700 |