Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPSC hits $54 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$80 (1.7%) on $-80 credit (max loss $4,620), vs +$255 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $5,145. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPSC is at $54. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPSC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 (-20%) | -$515 | -$504 | -$496 | -$504 |
| $44 (-15%) | -$324 | -$297 | -$267 | -$247 |
| $46 (-10%) | -$174 | -$138 | -$90 | +$11 |
| $49 (-5%) | -$68 | -$32 | +$15 | +$80 |
| $50 (-2%) | -$23 | +$9 | +$48 | +$80 |
| $51 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$29 | +$61 | +$80 |
| $52 (+2%) | +$19 | +$44 | +$69 | +$80 |
| $54 (+5%) โ target | +$40 | +$59 | +$76 | +$80 |
| $57 (+10%) | +$61 | +$73 | +$79 | +$80 |
| $59 (+15%) | +$72 | +$78 | +$80 | +$80 |
| $62 (+20%) | +$77 | +$79 | +$80 | +$80 |