Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $35 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$350 (700.0%) on $-50 credit (max loss $0), vs $-448 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $3,948. Options give 61.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $35. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$292 | +$305 | +$326 | +$350 |
| $34 (-15%) | +$265 | +$276 | +$297 | +$350 |
| $35 (-11%) โ target | +$244 | +$251 | +$266 | +$350 |
| $36 (-10%) | +$236 | +$242 | +$254 | +$350 |
| $38 (-5%) | +$206 | +$205 | +$203 | +$199 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$188 | +$183 | +$174 | +$81 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | +$177 | +$170 | +$155 | +$50 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$166 | +$157 | +$138 | +$50 |
| $41 (+5%) | +$151 | +$138 | +$116 | +$50 |
| $43 (+10%) | +$127 | +$113 | +$87 | +$50 |
| $45 (+15%) | +$108 | +$93 | +$70 | +$50 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$93 | +$78 | +$59 | +$50 |