Target Price Playground
STM
$39.66
๐ข
STM IV: 46.7% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $44 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $40 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.5 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.05 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $44 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$155 (106.9%) on $145 risked, vs +$434 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $3,967. Options give 9.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $44. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STM hits $44 by Jun 19
+$155
+106.9% on $145 risked
Max Profit
+$155
If the stock โฅ $43 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$145
Net debit
Break-even
$41.45
+4.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.6 / -0.13 / 0.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$119 | -$129 | -$141 | -$145 |
| $34 (-15%) | -$102 | -$114 | -$132 | -$145 |
| $36 (-10%) | -$81 | -$93 | -$114 | -$145 |
| $38 (-5%) | -$56 | -$65 | -$83 | -$145 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$40 | -$46 | -$60 | -$145 |
| $40 (0%) โ spot | -$29 | -$33 | -$42 | -$145 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$18 | -$20 | -$24 | -$100 |
| $42 (+5%) | -$2 | +$0 | +$4 | +$19 |
| $44 (+11%) โ target | +$29 | +$38 | +$55 | +$155 |
| $46 (+15%) | +$49 | +$61 | +$85 | +$155 |
| $48 (+20%) | +$70 | +$86 | +$112 | +$155 |
Uses STM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.