Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $42 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$350 (10.8%) on $-350 credit (max loss $3,250), vs +$234 (5.9%) for 100 shares on $3,967. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $42. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$171 | -$137 | -$100 | -$77 |
| $34 (-15%) | -$47 | -$4 | +$50 | +$121 |
| $36 (-10%) | +$55 | +$103 | +$166 | +$319 |
| $38 (-5%) | +$136 | +$184 | +$247 | +$350 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$175 | +$222 | +$280 | +$350 |
| $40 (0%) โ spot | +$198 | +$243 | +$297 | +$350 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$218 | +$261 | +$310 | +$350 |
| $42 (+6%) โ target | +$251 | +$289 | +$328 | +$350 |
| $44 (+10%) | +$278 | +$310 | +$339 | +$350 |
| $46 (+15%) | +$301 | +$326 | +$346 | +$350 |
| $48 (+20%) | +$318 | +$336 | +$348 | +$350 |