Target Price Playground
STM
$39.66
๐ข
STM IV: 46.7% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $43 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $39.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.05 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $43 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$539 (14.3%) on $3,762 risked, vs +$334 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $3,967. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $43. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STM hits $43 by Jun 19
+$539
+14.3% on $3,762 risked
Max Profit
+$539
If the stock โฅ $43 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,762
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$37.62
-5.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.7 / 2.56 / -6.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$614 | -$598 | -$589 | -$588 |
| $34 (-15%) | -$440 | -$414 | -$394 | -$390 |
| $36 (-10%) | -$279 | -$241 | -$206 | -$192 |
| $38 (-5%) | -$133 | -$83 | -$29 | +$7 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$54 | +$2 | +$67 | +$126 |
| $40 (0%) โ spot | -$6 | +$54 | +$126 | +$205 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$40 | +$103 | +$181 | +$284 |
| $42 (+5%) | +$103 | +$170 | +$254 | +$403 |
| $43 (+8%) โ target | +$168 | +$237 | +$325 | +$539 |
| $44 (+10%) | +$195 | +$264 | +$353 | +$539 |
| $46 (+15%) | +$269 | +$337 | +$422 | +$539 |
| $48 (+20%) | +$328 | +$392 | +$468 | +$539 |
Uses STM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.