Target Price Playground
STM
$39.48
๐ข
STM IV: 46.7% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $38 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $39 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.8 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $38 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.8 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $38 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$149 (148.6%) on $100 risked, vs $-148 (-3.7%) for 100 shares on $3,948. Options give 40.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $38. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STM hits $38 by Jun 19
+$149
+148.6% on $100 risked
Max Profit
+$149
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$96
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$41.69
+5.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.19 / 0.45 / 1.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$10 | +$13 | +$15 | -$1 |
| $34 (-15%) | +$12 | +$20 | +$29 | +$20 |
| $36 (-10%) | +$12 | +$22 | +$39 | +$61 |
| $38 (-5%) | +$8 | +$19 | +$39 | +$130 |
| $38 (-4%) โ target | +$7 | +$18 | +$37 | +$151 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$4 | +$15 | +$34 | +$116 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | +$11 | +$29 | +$80 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$2 | +$7 | +$22 | +$48 |
| $41 (+5%) | -$8 | -$1 | +$10 | +$9 |
| $43 (+10%) | -$19 | -$15 | -$13 | -$37 |
| $45 (+15%) | -$30 | -$30 | -$36 | -$66 |
| $47 (+20%) | -$41 | -$45 | -$55 | -$82 |
Uses STM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.