Target Price Playground
STM
$39.66
๐ข
STM IV: 46.7% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $35 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $40 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.6 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $35 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$140 (38.9%) on $360 risked, vs $-467 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $3,967. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $35. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STM hits $35 by Jun 19
+$140
+38.9% on $360 risked
Max Profit
+$3,640
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$360
Premium paid
Break-even
$36.40
-8.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.46 / -2.35 / 6.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$487 | +$470 | +$461 | +$467 |
| $34 (-15%) | +$329 | +$301 | +$274 | +$269 |
| $35 (-12%) โ target | +$236 | +$200 | +$161 | +$140 |
| $36 (-10%) | +$189 | +$150 | +$104 | +$71 |
| $38 (-5%) | +$68 | +$20 | -$42 | -$128 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$6 | -$46 | -$114 | -$247 |
| $40 (0%) โ spot | -$32 | -$85 | -$156 | -$326 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$67 | -$121 | -$192 | -$360 |
| $42 (+5%) | -$114 | -$168 | -$238 | -$360 |
| $44 (+10%) | -$179 | -$230 | -$292 | -$360 |
| $46 (+15%) | -$229 | -$274 | -$325 | -$360 |
| $48 (+20%) | -$266 | -$305 | -$343 | -$360 |
Uses STM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.