Target Price Playground
STM
$39.48
๐ข
STM IV: 46.7% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $43 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $39.48 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $38 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.8 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $43 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-128 (-2.9%) on $4,428 risked, vs +$352 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $3,948. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $43. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STM hits $43 by Jun 19
$-128
-2.9% on $4,428 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$628
Put floors you at $38
Break-even
$44.28
+12.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.78 / -2.27 / 6.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$581 | -$605 | -$626 | -$628 |
| $34 (-15%) | -$527 | -$563 | -$603 | -$628 |
| $36 (-10%) | -$453 | -$498 | -$555 | -$628 |
| $38 (-5%) | -$358 | -$408 | -$475 | -$628 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$292 | -$343 | -$411 | -$559 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$243 | -$294 | -$362 | -$480 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$192 | -$243 | -$307 | -$401 |
| $41 (+5%) | -$111 | -$159 | -$219 | -$283 |
| $43 (+9%) โ target | +$4 | -$40 | -$90 | -$128 |
| $43 (+10%) | +$38 | -$5 | -$53 | -$85 |
| $45 (+15%) | +$198 | +$162 | +$127 | +$112 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$369 | +$340 | +$317 | +$310 |
Uses STM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.