Target Price Playground
STM
$39.48
๐ข
STM IV: 46.7% โ LOW
(-26.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $45 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $39 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.94 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $39 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STM hits $45 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-94 (-13.5%) on $694 risked, vs +$552 (14.0%) for 100 shares on $3,948. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STM is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STM hits $45 by Jun 19
$-94
-13.5% on $694 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$694
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$45.94
+16.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.63 / -5.0 / 13.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$141 | +$92 | +$52 | +$48 |
| $34 (-15%) | +$36 | -$38 | -$113 | -$150 |
| $36 (-10%) | -$31 | -$126 | -$239 | -$347 |
| $38 (-5%) | -$58 | -$168 | -$308 | -$545 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$56 | -$170 | -$318 | -$663 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$46 | -$162 | -$312 | -$646 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$30 | -$146 | -$295 | -$567 |
| $41 (+5%) | +$4 | -$110 | -$253 | -$449 |
| $43 (+10%) | +$86 | -$19 | -$142 | -$251 |
| $45 (+14%) โ target | +$172 | +$76 | -$26 | -$94 |
| $45 (+15%) | +$196 | +$103 | +$6 | -$54 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$329 | +$251 | +$178 | +$144 |
Uses STM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.