Target Price Playground
STX
$503.13
๐ข
STX IV: 68.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 102.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $62.76 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $465 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.94 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $445 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,218 (53.4%) on $2,282 risked, vs $-5,813 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $50,313. Options give 4.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $445 by Jun 19
+$1,218
+53.4% on $2,282 risked
Max Profit
+$1,218
If the stock โค $465 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,282
Net debit
Break-even
$477.18
-5.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.61 / -9.23 / 5.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$367 | +$484 | +$717 | +$1,218 |
| $428 (-15%) | +$141 | +$223 | +$408 | +$1,218 |
| $445 (-12%) โ target | -$21 | +$30 | +$156 | +$1,218 |
| $453 (-10%) | -$95 | -$60 | +$36 | +$1,218 |
| $478 (-5%) | -$332 | -$349 | -$364 | -$79 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$471 | -$520 | -$604 | -$1,589 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | -$563 | -$631 | -$759 | -$2,282 |
| $513 (+2%) | -$652 | -$740 | -$908 | -$2,282 |
| $528 (+5%) | -$782 | -$897 | -$1,119 | -$2,282 |
| $553 (+10%) | -$986 | -$1,138 | -$1,425 | -$2,282 |
| $579 (+15%) | -$1,171 | -$1,351 | -$1,672 | -$2,282 |
| $604 (+20%) | -$1,338 | -$1,534 | -$1,861 | -$2,282 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.