Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $530 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$3,994 (9.4%) on $-3,994 credit (max loss $42,506), vs +$2,687 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $50,313. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $530. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$4,692 | -$3,954 | -$3,069 | -$2,256 |
| $428 (-15%) | -$3,243 | -$2,394 | -$1,305 | +$260 |
| $453 (-10%) | -$1,986 | -$1,064 | +$152 | +$2,776 |
| $478 (-5%) | -$910 | +$43 | +$1,300 | +$3,994 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$345 | +$609 | +$1,851 | +$3,994 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$948 | +$2,165 | +$3,994 |
| $513 (+2%) | +$321 | +$1,257 | +$2,441 | +$3,994 |
| $530 (+5%) โ target | +$808 | +$1,716 | +$2,825 | +$3,994 |
| $553 (+10%) | +$1,391 | +$2,243 | +$3,222 | +$3,994 |
| $579 (+15%) | +$1,908 | +$2,686 | +$3,512 | +$3,994 |
| $604 (+20%) | +$2,329 | +$3,025 | +$3,700 | +$3,994 |