Target Price Playground
STX
$503.13
๐ข
STX IV: 68.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 102.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $540 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $503.13 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $540 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.0 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $540 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$8,787 (19.4%) on $45,213 risked, vs +$3,687 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $50,313. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $540 by Jun 19
+$8,787
+19.4% on $45,213 risked
Max Profit
+$8,787
If the stock โฅ $540 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$45,213
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$452.13
-10.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.22 / 50.18 / -87.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$6,292 | -$5,681 | -$5,145 | -$4,963 |
| $428 (-15%) | -$4,400 | -$3,628 | -$2,849 | -$2,447 |
| $453 (-10%) | -$2,671 | -$1,747 | -$713 | +$69 |
| $478 (-5%) | -$1,111 | -$57 | +$1,211 | +$2,584 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$255 | +$863 | +$2,249 | +$4,094 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | +$282 | +$1,436 | +$2,888 | +$5,100 |
| $513 (+2%) | +$792 | +$1,977 | +$3,484 | +$6,106 |
| $528 (+5%) | +$1,511 | +$2,731 | +$4,297 | +$7,616 |
| $540 (+7%) โ target | +$2,029 | +$3,268 | +$4,862 | +$8,787 |
| $553 (+10%) | +$2,584 | +$3,835 | +$5,441 | +$8,787 |
| $579 (+15%) | +$3,514 | +$4,764 | +$6,339 | +$8,787 |
| $604 (+20%) | +$4,312 | +$5,533 | +$7,021 | +$8,787 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.