Target Price Playground
STX
$503.13
๐ข
STX IV: 68.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 102.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $62.76 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $445 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-776 (-12.4%) on $6,276 risked, vs $-5,813 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $50,313. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $445 by Jun 19
$-776
-12.4% on $6,276 risked
Max Profit
+$43,724
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$6,276
Premium paid
Break-even
$437.24
-13.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.69 / -48.3 / 83.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$5,060 | +$4,438 | +$3,786 | +$3,474 |
| $428 (-15%) | +$3,384 | +$2,617 | +$1,713 | +$958 |
| $445 (-12%) โ target | +$2,335 | +$1,483 | +$424 | -$776 |
| $453 (-10%) | +$1,891 | +$1,005 | -$116 | -$1,558 |
| $478 (-5%) | +$578 | -$392 | -$1,665 | -$4,073 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$127 | -$1,129 | -$2,455 | -$5,583 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | -$563 | -$1,579 | -$2,924 | -$6,276 |
| $513 (+2%) | -$973 | -$1,997 | -$3,349 | -$6,276 |
| $528 (+5%) | -$1,543 | -$2,569 | -$3,908 | -$6,276 |
| $553 (+10%) | -$2,376 | -$3,381 | -$4,647 | -$6,276 |
| $579 (+15%) | -$3,079 | -$4,037 | -$5,184 | -$6,276 |
| $604 (+20%) | -$3,667 | -$4,559 | -$5,561 | -$6,276 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.