Target Price Playground
STX
$503.13
๐ข
STX IV: 68.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 102.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $503.13 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $480 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $53.05 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $550 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-618 (-1.1%) on $55,618 risked, vs +$4,687 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $50,313. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $550 by Jun 19
$-618
-1.1% on $55,618 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$7,618
Put floors you at $480
Break-even
$556.18
+10.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.06 / -46.02 / 81.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$5,577 | -$6,270 | -$7,059 | -$7,618 |
| $428 (-15%) | -$4,612 | -$5,432 | -$6,453 | -$7,618 |
| $453 (-10%) | -$3,457 | -$4,371 | -$5,564 | -$7,618 |
| $478 (-5%) | -$2,121 | -$3,090 | -$4,374 | -$7,618 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$1,237 | -$2,220 | -$3,518 | -$6,311 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | -$615 | -$1,600 | -$2,892 | -$5,305 |
| $513 (+2%) | +$32 | -$950 | -$2,224 | -$4,299 |
| $528 (+5%) | +$1,047 | +$79 | -$1,149 | -$2,789 |
| $550 (+9%) โ target | +$2,593 | +$1,662 | +$532 | -$618 |
| $579 (+15%) | +$4,768 | +$3,909 | +$2,941 | +$2,242 |
| $604 (+20%) | +$6,794 | +$6,012 | +$5,198 | +$4,758 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.