Target Price Playground
STX
$503.13
๐ข
STX IV: 68.6% โ LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 102.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $500 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $69.5 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $62.76 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If STX hits $580 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-5,226 (-39.5%) on $13,226 risked, vs +$7,687 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $50,313. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if STX is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if STX hits $580 by Jun 19
$-5,226
-39.5% on $13,226 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$13,226
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$632.26
+25.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.69 / -99.86 / 167.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| STX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$106 | -$1,271 | -$2,711 | -$3,476 |
| $428 (-15%) | -$729 | -$2,398 | -$4,340 | -$5,992 |
| $453 (-10%) | -$1,199 | -$3,106 | -$5,482 | -$8,508 |
| $478 (-5%) | -$1,310 | -$3,384 | -$6,065 | -$11,023 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$1,209 | -$3,348 | -$6,136 | -$12,533 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | -$1,075 | -$3,242 | -$6,068 | -$12,913 |
| $513 (+2%) | -$890 | -$3,073 | -$5,912 | -$11,907 |
| $528 (+5%) | -$520 | -$2,707 | -$5,520 | -$10,397 |
| $553 (+10%) | +$328 | -$1,815 | -$4,483 | -$7,882 |
| $580 (+15%) โ target | +$1,508 | -$536 | -$2,950 | -$5,226 |
| $604 (+20%) | +$2,779 | +$860 | -$1,278 | -$2,850 |
Uses STX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.