Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SWKS hits $59 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$236 (4.8%) on $-236 credit (max loss $4,964), vs +$264 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $5,636. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SWKS is at $59. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SWKS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 (-20%) | -$560 | -$518 | -$474 | -$455 |
| $48 (-15%) | -$374 | -$317 | -$247 | -$173 |
| $51 (-10%) | -$220 | -$154 | -$67 | +$108 |
| $54 (-5%) | -$96 | -$28 | +$62 | +$236 |
| $55 (-2%) | -$36 | +$31 | +$117 | +$236 |
| $56 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$65 | +$145 | +$236 |
| $57 (+2%) | +$31 | +$93 | +$168 | +$236 |
| $59 (+5%) โ target | +$68 | +$125 | +$190 | +$236 |
| $62 (+10%) | +$124 | +$171 | +$217 | +$236 |
| $65 (+15%) | +$161 | +$198 | +$228 | +$236 |
| $68 (+20%) | +$186 | +$214 | +$233 | +$236 |