Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TDC hits $27 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$123 (5.5%) on $-123 credit (max loss $2,227), vs +$128 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $2,572. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TDC is at $27. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TDC Price | Today | May 6 | May 28 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | -$242 | -$217 | -$188 | -$169 |
| $22 (-15%) | -$163 | -$132 | -$92 | -$41 |
| $23 (-10%) | -$96 | -$62 | -$15 | +$88 |
| $24 (-5%) | -$42 | -$8 | +$40 | +$123 |
| $25 (-2%) | -$15 | +$19 | +$64 | +$123 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$34 | +$77 | +$123 |
| $26 (+2%) | +$15 | +$47 | +$87 | +$123 |
| $27 (+5%) โ target | +$33 | +$63 | +$99 | +$123 |
| $28 (+10%) | +$59 | +$84 | +$111 | +$123 |
| $30 (+15%) | +$77 | +$98 | +$117 | +$123 |
| $31 (+20%) | +$91 | +$108 | +$121 | +$123 |