Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TEAM hits $60 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$532 (11.2%) on $-532 credit (max loss $4,768), vs +$285 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $5,715. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TEAM is at $60. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TEAM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 (-20%) | -$527 | -$431 | -$314 | -$196 |
| $49 (-15%) | -$367 | -$258 | -$119 | +$90 |
| $51 (-10%) | -$227 | -$110 | +$45 | +$376 |
| $54 (-5%) | -$105 | +$16 | +$176 | +$532 |
| $56 (-2%) | -$40 | +$81 | +$241 | +$532 |
| $57 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$121 | +$278 | +$532 |
| $58 (+2%) | +$37 | +$158 | +$312 | +$532 |
| $60 (+5%) โ target | +$89 | +$207 | +$355 | +$532 |
| $63 (+10%) | +$165 | +$278 | +$411 | +$532 |
| $66 (+15%) | +$228 | +$334 | +$451 | +$532 |
| $69 (+20%) | +$282 | +$379 | +$479 | +$532 |