Target Price Playground
TEL
$229.78
๐ข
TEL IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 57.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $230 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.4 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $210 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.4 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TEL hits $200 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,400 (233.3%) on $600 risked, vs $-2,978 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $22,978. Options give 17.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TEL is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TEL hits $200 by Jun 19
+$1,400
+233.3% on $600 risked
Max Profit
+$1,400
If the stock โค $210 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$600
Net debit
Break-even
$224.00
-2.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
42%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.83 / -1.76 / 6.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TEL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $184 (-20%) | +$1,130 | +$1,218 | +$1,332 | +$1,400 |
| $195 (-15%) | +$941 | +$1,029 | +$1,179 | +$1,400 |
| $200 (-13%) โ target | +$849 | +$929 | +$1,075 | +$1,400 |
| $207 (-10%) | +$706 | +$764 | +$880 | +$1,400 |
| $218 (-5%) | +$450 | +$457 | +$471 | +$571 |
| $225 (-2%) | +$298 | +$272 | +$218 | -$118 |
| $230 (0%) โ spot | +$201 | +$155 | +$61 | -$578 |
| $234 (+2%) | +$108 | +$46 | -$79 | -$600 |
| $241 (+5%) | -$19 | -$101 | -$253 | -$600 |
| $253 (+10%) | -$198 | -$294 | -$444 | -$600 |
| $264 (+15%) | -$334 | -$425 | -$540 | -$600 |
| $276 (+20%) | -$431 | -$506 | -$579 | -$600 |
Uses TEL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.