Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TEL hits $240 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$940 (4.7%) on $-940 credit (max loss $20,060), vs +$1,022 (4.4%) for 100 shares on $22,978. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TEL is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TEL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $184 (-20%) | -$1,891 | -$1,785 | -$1,687 | -$1,678 |
| $195 (-15%) | -$1,094 | -$925 | -$719 | -$529 |
| $207 (-10%) | -$454 | -$248 | +$27 | +$620 |
| $218 (-5%) | +$27 | +$236 | +$510 | +$940 |
| $225 (-2%) | +$246 | +$444 | +$686 | +$940 |
| $230 (0%) โ spot | +$367 | +$552 | +$767 | +$940 |
| $234 (+2%) | +$471 | +$640 | +$825 | +$940 |
| $240 (+4%) โ target | +$575 | +$725 | +$873 | +$940 |
| $253 (+10%) | +$741 | +$844 | +$922 | +$940 |
| $264 (+15%) | +$829 | +$896 | +$935 | +$940 |
| $276 (+20%) | +$880 | +$921 | +$939 | +$940 |