Target Price Playground
TEL
$229.78
๐ข
TEL IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 57.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $229.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.75 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TEL hits $255 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$147 (0.6%) on $25,353 risked, vs +$2,522 (11.0%) for 100 shares on $22,978. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TEL is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TEL hits $255 by Jun 19
+$147
+0.6% on $25,353 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,353
Put floors you at $220
Break-even
$253.53
+10.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.13 / -11.88 / 37.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TEL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $184 (-20%) | -$3,304 | -$3,363 | -$3,394 | -$3,353 |
| $195 (-15%) | -$3,060 | -$3,187 | -$3,316 | -$3,353 |
| $207 (-10%) | -$2,677 | -$2,864 | -$3,097 | -$3,353 |
| $218 (-5%) | -$2,141 | -$2,360 | -$2,653 | -$3,353 |
| $225 (-2%) | -$1,748 | -$1,970 | -$2,264 | -$2,835 |
| $230 (0%) โ spot | -$1,456 | -$1,675 | -$1,957 | -$2,375 |
| $234 (+2%) | -$1,144 | -$1,354 | -$1,616 | -$1,915 |
| $241 (+5%) | -$639 | -$831 | -$1,053 | -$1,226 |
| $255 (+11%) โ target | +$474 | +$330 | +$197 | +$147 |
| $264 (+15%) | +$1,286 | +$1,176 | +$1,092 | +$1,072 |
| $276 (+20%) | +$2,344 | +$2,270 | +$2,226 | +$2,221 |
Uses TEL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.